Ever seen a weatherman predict sunshine during a hurricane? That’s confirmation bias in forecasting. It’s far more common than you might think. We all try to find patterns in data, but sometimes we ...

Are economic forecasts biased downward because of economists’ antipathy against President Trump? I don’t know the answer, but I’m pondering the question. We economists tend to be well educated, often ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract A new method, called contour shifting, is proposed for correcting the bias in forecasts of contours such as sea ice concentration above ...

Plural societies require individuals to forecast how others—both in-group and out-group members—will respond to gains and setbacks. Typically, correcting affective forecasts to include more relevant ...

Are professional economists truly objective when forecasting economic projections? New research from Wake Forest University suggests otherwise, revealing a subtle yet powerful influence of political ...